AND WE'RE OFF!

At last the big day has arrived. It's the morning of Saturday 16th August 2008 and the Premiership season is only a couple of hours away. The seasons opening fixture is Arsenal v W B A. We start our campaign at Villa Park the following day. This is where it all begins for what we hope is a compelling season and with something to shout about come May 2009!

May is usually the definitive month when much is decided. Whether that be success or failure. Unfortunately it is also a month when much of what was predicted comes to fruition. The same top four. The relegation of the promoted clubs. In fact the same old story. Is it likely to change this season? I'd like to think it will, but it is so difficult to break into the elite top four or to survive following promotion. But it's not impossible and we all have to believe in order to keep the dream alive.

So what is likely to happen? Well i'm no prophet but i'm not sure you need to be with regards to the P L. I expect United and Chelsea to finish in the top two. Liverpool are something of an enigma. You expect so much from them but they don't always deliver. However, if Torres maintains his form and builds on his Euro success with Spain and Robbie Keane can continue to drive his colleagues on and chip in with some vital goals then the Scousers can finish third and maybe push Fergie and Scolari all the way. Arsenal, like Liverpool have promised so much in recent years but have fallen short. A relatively small squad littered with younger players have failed to improve as expected and maintain a consistency level that would push them that one step further. They do play some lovely football but it don't always win you games. Wenger has sold Flamini, Hleb and Silva and signed Nasri and Bischoff. But are the new signings better than those released? I think the Gunners problems will continue this season unless they can avoid injuries and suspensions. So who is likely to push for that fourth place? Spurs are thought to one of the few genuine challengers but having released nine players including Tainio, Chimbonda and Keane and despite Bentley's capture I can't really see them maintaining a long term assault. Everton's lack of transfer activity and the sale of Andy Johnson plus a lack of quality in the squad could see them just managing a top ten finish. Pompey could very well build on their Cup Final appearance and if they get off to a good start and keep that momentum going they may surprise a few teams. If Crouch and Defoe can hit it off then i'm sure they will score goals. However, having sold Muntari and Mendez (£15.7m) they may have weakened their squad at a cost. But the favourites for me has to be Martin O'Neill's, Villa side. They can play with a ruggedness and steel coupled with attacking flair. The Irishman has injected new blood to his squad with the aquisition of Sidwell, Friedel, Shorey, Young and Cuellar and with Barry (for now) still at the helm, the £28.4m spent could well prove to be a winning investment. And what about our own Manchester City? Once again we are the imponderables. You look at Pompey, Everton, Blackburn and Spurs and see very little between the sides. City are without doubt in possession of some quality players throughout the team and on their day should be a match for Villa and certainly better than the others mentioned. But finishing fourth...........you can't really see it happening! Yet I think Villa can and I rate us as good as them. My biggest fear for City is the mental approach of the players. The will to win and the wherewithall to create chances and put them away. Hughes'y i'm sure will bring some discipline to the side but at the end of the day it is the players will to succeed that will overcome all. If they can't then it could be a relatively mediocre season with us treading water rather than moving onwards and upwards.

The dreaded threat of relegation appears to hang heavy over the three promoted clubs already. History does tell you that at least one if not two will be relegated. This season the bookies have The Albion, Stoke and Hull all returning from whence they came. On the probabilities it is difficult to dispute this. But I think one of the three will survive. But which one? West Brom scored goals for fun last year but that task is mighty hard in the Premiership. They've also lost a proven top flight scorer in Phillips which could cost them dearly. The Black country club have signed six players inc Carson, Meite and Zuiverloom spending £9.05m. They lack quality and strength in depth and I think this will be their achilles heel. Stoke City, struggled towards the end of last year and were maybe fortunate to gain promotion, but all credit to them in taking advantage of the failings of those other promotion contenders. Stoke like West Brom haven't invested heavily in the transfer market. Kitson from Reading and Olofinjana from Wolves are the only signings for £8.5m. They aren't likely to leave their rivals quaking in their boots! Derby's worst record points haul last year could very well be equalled if not surpassed by Stoke this season. So that's two out of three relegated! That leaves Hull City as my survivors. Why? History will reveal that those promoted clubs that fail to invest to protect their new found wealth tend to struggle. Attempting to get by with what are basically Championship players is asking a lot. The gulf between the divisions is massive now. Effort and endeavour can see you through in some cases but a well balanced and numerically strong squad, plus players with Premiership experience can be a blessing. Hull have a manager with Premiership involvement with Bolton. They have brought in NINE new faces. Geovanni, Boateng and Marlon King (loan) will join up with Barmby and Windass as players with P L playing experience. I believe this gives them a distinct advantage over the other two promoted sides.

Despite my confidence in Hull's survival chances much will depend on the improvement those teams who struggled last year have made. Bolton, Boro, Fulham, Newcastle,Wigan and Sunderland all courted with relegation last year and all five will need to improve on last year. If the five can achieve that, then that could very well be the nail in Hull's coffin. Sunderland and Fulham lead the way in the transfer market, with the signing of 5 and 4 players respectively. Roy Keane has signed Tainio, Colgan, Chimbonda, Diouf and Malbranque to substantially strengthen his squad. Fulham boss Hodgson has signed Johnson, Zamora, Zuberbuhler and Pantzil. Both managers have added quality and depth and should improve on last year. Bolton, Boro and Newcastle have made a few signings but have lost players as well. Keegan has released Emre and signed Gutierrez, Coloccini and Guthrie. Megson has let Campo, Meite and Diouf go and brought in Riga and Shittu and Southgate has moved on Young, Cattermole and Boateng whilst signing Emnes and Digoud. Wigan who struggled last term may reap the benefits of Steve Bruce's P L experience this term. They have signed Ridder, Kapo and Cattermole to strengthen their squad and should stay clear of relegation providing they get off to a good start.

Overall, I don't see too much change in the standings this season in comparison to last year. Hopefully someone will break the monopoly of the big four and the promoted clubs all survive but in reality i'm not convinced it's about to happen. If it does, football will be the beneficiary. Last years Cup final saw the mould broken and even though the Final was no classic, it gives the lesser clubs hope. And we all need that! So it's fingers crossed and let's hope we as a club can improve on last year and give our selves something tangible to toast and see us moving on up!!

 

Geoff Stevenson

 

                     

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